March 2007 - Bet Shrink

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Bet Shrink - March 2007

Serbia - Portugal

March 28th 2007 12:11

Serbia – Portugal

Serbia are expecting derby match against Portugal after embarrassing defeat against 2:1. Team have played disorganized , especially in the middle and also defense didn’t look solid as usual. But , few days ago defense was without standard and reliable players Krstajic and Dragutinovic who were rested for today ‘s match. I expect Serbian “old” defensive performances today and I expect lot of problem for Portugal strikers. Also, last time Serbia was without captain and very important midfielder Dejan Stankovic. He practically leads whole team and makes midfield stabile. With him today I think we will see more creativity from Serbian national team. Of course, big blow for Serbian team is Zigic’s missing. Clemente based team tactics in attack on him, but he has good replacement in Lazetic , one of the best strikers in Holland. Although, not full strength in attack I believe Lazetic and Pantelic together could make some troubles to Portugal defense.

Portugal humiliated Belgium , but don’t forget , Portugal at home and away are two different teams. Just like Serbia they have maximum home performances , but they’ve lost in Poland and drew in Finland , so week away performances could be a chance for Serbia. By latest news Ronaldo is doubtful , but I think he will play in such important match. Definitely, Portugal have good players in all team lines , probably betetr midfield with Mothino, Petit and Tiago and powerful attack with Ronaldo and Quaresma on wings and Gomes in the middle , but if Serbia plays smart in defense they could be neutralized. If someone knows Ronaldo it’s certainly Nemanja Vidic and he probably could help with some information about his style of play.

At the end, the most important , my pick. First of all , I’m from Serbia and I usually do not bet on my national team. But today I thinks bookies underestimated Serbia , probably because we lost against glorious nation of Kazakhstan. But anyone who knows our team also knows that we could lost but also win against any team on planet, so that last match means nothing. I will go for Serbia AH 0.25 (1.92 @ gamebookers). Also, I think half time draw could be a good choice too (2.10 @ bet365)

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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David Ferrer - Andy Roddick

March 27th 2007 12:59

Ferrer - Roddick

I expect very close match today. 14th Ferrer will try to repeat last year success from Miami quarter-finals and to beat 3rd Roddick again (6-3 4-6 6-4). But I think it will be much harder this year for him.

Ferrer has good form in 2007 and in Miami he won over Monaco and Bolelli without much pain , winning against both without set dropped. He has great play from the base line which should be his advantage today. Compared to him Roddick has much better serve , but not so good performances from the base line and I think, his performances will depend today from his serve. This is 50/50 match and both players have fair chances to win.

Anyway, I think Ferrer maybe could win this match , but I’m pretty sure he will take at least one set . That’s why I believe Ferrer with set handicap 1.5 should be a good choice in this encounter. Odds are good , 1.90 @ interwetten.

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 4. Tennis picks

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EURO 2008 Qualifiers, March 24

March 24th 2007 00:56

Israel – England

Israel is on 4th place in group E, with 2-1-1 stats. They’ve won against Andora at home 4:1 and Estonia away 0:1, drew with Russia away 1:1 and lost at home against Croatia 3:4. They’ve played with two tough opponents and won only one point, so this is their actual strength. O course, in Israel they could make some troubles for some teams but objectively they are at least one class below England. Israel will have three important missing as forward Yaniv Katan is injured, Bolton midfielder Idan Tal and their best striker Colautti are suspended. Also , midfielder and probably one of the most influential players, Yossi Benayoun is doubtful and that could be a major problem for Israelis.

Team (probable): Aouate; Ben Haim, Yoav Ziv ,Ben Yosef ,Shpungin; Benayoun ?, Badir, Toamah, Golan ;Balili, Sahar.

England is on 3rd place with 7 points as their today’s opponents . They have 3 points less than Croatia and 1 point less than Russia. England have won over Andora 5:0 and against Macedonia in Skopje. At home they’ve just drew with Macedonia and finally , they lost in Croatia 2:0. Not good start for coach Steve McClaren. England is practically in a must win situation and all in squad are aware of that. England public is very unsatisfied with McClaren performances so far and this will be additional pressure for the guests today. But England national team have way more to give and I think they will push very strong today with strong aim to make three points and to catch Croatia and Russia. Gary Neville and Jonathan Woodgate are out.

Team (probable): Robinson; Carragher, P Neville, Terry, Ferdinand; Gerrard, Hargreaves, Lampard, Lennon; Rooney, Johnson.

England have more qualities than hosts. I don’t see how Israel could respond to strong England midfield and I believe this part of the filed will be crucial for England winning today. My pick is England to win (AH -0.5, 1.85 @ betsafe).

Spain - Denmark

Spain is in very difficult situation after three rounds. They’ve won only against Liechtenstein and lost both away fixtures , against Sweden 2:0 and Northern Ireland 3:2. It’s still early phase of qualifications but Spain must start to win points and to climb up on the table. Match against Denmark and the next one against Northern Ireland could be crucial for Spain qualifications in EURO ’08. Similar like England , Spain is more or less in a must win situation. They have two important defenders out as Puyol and Sergio Ramos are suspended, so we can expect probably Havi Navarro and Angel instead.

Team (probable): Casillas; Angel, Javi Navarro, Marchena, Capdevilla; Iniesta, Albelda, Xavi, Silva; Villa, Morientes.

Denmark laying on 2nd place with 7 points out of 3 games and they are in much better situation than Spain. But this match is also important for them as any result except losing will make their chances for qualifying better. They are solid team , but they come to Spain in very dramatic moment for hosts and that will make things harder for them. They have few players from domestic league in team and it’s questionable can they play on satisfying level as Denmark championship started just few weeks ago. This is certainly disadvantage for the visitors. Martin Laursen, Thomas Helveg, Soren Larsen and Peter Lovenkrands are out.

Team (probable): Sorensen; Jacobsen, Gravgaard, Agger, Niclas Jensen; Poulsen, Daniel Jensen; Rommedahl, Jorgensen, Kahlenberg; Tomasson

It wouldn’t be easy for Spain today as Denmark play very strong and tough football. But Spain have bigger need for points , they will have home field advantage and more games in the legs than some Denmark players. It’s enough for me to pick Spain to win ( 1.70 @ betsafe). Or if you’re looking for better odds Spain AH -0.75 ( around 1.90)

From other matches I believe France and Serbia should win, also Georgia AH 1.25 could be a wise choice.

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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Djokovic - Nadal

March 18th 2007 09:57

Djokovic – Nadal

Novak Djokovic autograph

Djokovic plays maybe best tennis of his life at Indian Wells. He reached the final in straight sets , eliminating Ginepri, Korolev, Benneteau , Ferrer and last night Murray. He have dropped only 27 games in 5 matches and that’s certainly score for respect. Djokovic improvement compared to last season is visible and with such performances he deserve to be in Top 5. His serve is excellent, he has great play in the field and it’s very hard to play against him. After such great performances at Indian Wells he must be very confident , so it will be even harder for Nadal.

Nadal is another player who didn’t drop any set at Indian Wells. He eliminated Clement , Verdasco, Ferrero, Chela and Roddick , but he had more problems to win than Djokovic. However on last match he easily won over Roddick and it looks he also enjoy good moments this season.

H2H is 1:0 for Nadal, last year at Rolland Garros , 6:4, 6:4. But it was Nadal’s favorite surface clay and I believe Djokovic has way more chances on hard surface. Nadal is not unbeatable and I hope Djokovic will exploit that fact today. Djokovic to win his first Masters title. ( 3.30 @ 5dimes).

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Djokovic - Murray

March 17th 2007 12:59

I've been waiting for this match for a long time. Two young, most perspective players will have a chance to decide who is the better one. It’s the second meeting between Andy and Novak. Novak won their only match in Madrid last year, in three sets.

Both youngsters play extremely well. In previous round Djokovic won with easy against Ferrer , while Murray beat lately in form Haas. Murray won in three setter after tie break.

I believe match easily could go both ways, but my favorite is Djokovic. He is already almost complete player and I think we will see him in the final. Djokovic to win , medium stakes (1.80 @ Pinnacle)

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 4. Tennis picks

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Bundesliga, March 17

March 17th 2007 12:32

Frankfurt – Bayern M.

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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Cork City - Galway

March 16th 2007 13:28

Cork City - Galway

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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UEFA Cup , March 15

March 15th 2007 01:26

Shakhtar – Sevilla

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El Clasico

March 10th 2007 17:37

This week was one of the worst for Spanish club football as both Barcelona and Real were eliminated from Champions League.

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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Rangers FC - Osasuna

March 8th 2007 11:26

Rangers will host Osasuna in Round of 16 first leg match in Glasgow. In previous round Rangers overcame Israel team Hapoel losing 2:1 in Tel-Aviv , but in second match they did pretty well beating them 4:0 at home. Rangers will be strongly motivated to reach another stage of competition. As you probably know final match this year will be played at Hampden Park in Glasgow and that’s why are Rangers very interested in this season UEFA Cup. Rangers have almost full squad available. The only missing is first choice goalkeeper McGregor who earned red card in match against Hapoel. Stefan Klos have played rest of the match then and he will also start today

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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Werder Bremen - Bochum

March 3rd 2007 12:46

After yesterday’s Schalke lost two teams can take advantage of it. The first one is Stutgart , but they have hard match in Leverkusen and the second one is more likely Werder. With 3 points today Werder will decrease Schalke’s advantage to just 3 points. Werder is not enjoying best form lately and at home ground they didn’t win more than one month. Team have title ambitions and I believe yesterday’s result will be strong motivation for them. Werder is without Baumann, Klasnic and Borowski. Almeida , Owomoyela , Fritz and probably Klose are back in squad. If Klose play today , I expect easy win for home team.

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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NEC - Twente

March 2nd 2007 16:04

NEC do not have good period in last month. They are 11th in league but it looks they are far from one of the UEFA Cup spots. They have big problems in attack , with only 25 goals scored during season which is third worst in whole Eredivisie. Luckily for them they have good defense and that line of the team keep the safe position this year. Today they will be without few players in the midfield , so it is expected some defenders must take place instead them. Three standard midfielders are out Pothuizen ,Nedzielan and Ntibazonkiza. Olsson and El-Akchaoui are back in defense and El-Akchaoui will probably play in the middle

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August 2008

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July 2008

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June 2008

3 Posts