February 2007 - Bet Shrink

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Bet Shrink - February 2007

Excelsior - NAC

February 25th 2007 01:27

Relegation candidate Excelsior have made biggest surprise last week. They drew with Ajax and finished 10 matches losing row. They are currently at 16th position and if they continue with performance from the last match they could easily void play – out after end of the season. Excelsior playmaker and probable best player Bruins will miss another match but they proved they could play without him in Amsterdam. Hertog and Gyan are also out injured while Voskamp, Rothman and Steur are doubtful.

NAC have won last Friday at home against Sparta 3:1. They’ve lost 6th spot yesterday as Roda won and Heerenveen drew at their matches. Now, they will search for the win to regain their position. They have efficient striker Glen Salmon who can help them to win . Arne Slot and Diba will be starters again , while recovered Penders could expect start from the bench. Tamerus , Sikora , Pinas and van den Broek are all out injured. But possible biggest problems guests could have at goalkeeper position as Edvin Zotebir and Arno van Zwam, first and second goalkeepers have flu. If they cannot be recovered before match their place will take third choice GK Bas van Vegen.

Excelsior have good chance to repeat result from the last round. They will have home field advantage and I think they could even make a win after 10 unproductive and one draw match. Excelsior will finish half of their job if they can stop best NAC striker Salmon. NAC is not team for underestimating but I believe they cannot win. So, my pick is Excelsior AH 0.25 (2.00 @ Pinnacle). Some bookies have AH 0.5 option too.

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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Djokovic - Youzhny

February 24th 2007 11:11

At previous tournament Youzhny have won in first round against Serbian player. Today is a good chance for Djokovic to pay back for that. Djokovic won against Robredo. He lost first set , but then he won another two . It's not unusual for Djokovic lately and it seems he need some time to accommodate in match. But today he must be better than that because Youzhny is in good form. Head-to-Head stats are 1:1. Those are very equal opponents at the moment and small differences will decide match today. So, in this 50/50 match I will go for Djokovic because I think he is ready to have another final this season. He won his first title in Netherlands (Amersfoort) last year and it might be good sign today too. Djokovic to win.

1.88 @ Pinnacle

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 4. Tennis picks

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Djokovic - Robredo

February 23rd 2007 00:32

Very interesting match in Rotterdam today. It will be very close match in my opinion because both players are well accustomed to hard surface. However, I want to give advantage to Novak Djokovic. He showed good performances lately , in this tournament too, he is good prepared and when he play in best posible condition he can beat any player except Federer of course. He had small problems in previous match against Pavel as he struggled in first set , but after that set he took match more serious and easily finished it with win. Robredo won yesterday against de Voest but taht wasn't really hard task for him . I expect much more problems against Djokovic , problems which will lead to Robredo's elimination. Djokovic to win.

1.79 @ Bwin

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 4. Tennis picks

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Porto - Chelsea

February 21st 2007 11:56

After few matches without win Porto finally won against Naval 4:0 . It looks they are back in their usual form in right time because today they have very hard match. Porto is very hard to beat at home. They play excellent defensively with no much chances allowed to visitors. Also, they play good in the midfield and against Chelsea midfield is always key for success. Quaresma and Gonzales should be strong enough to do the job in the middle and together with Postiga and Lopez in attack they also could make some problems to Chelsea defense. Porto have one squad worry , defender Fucile is slight doubt , but he will probably play.

Chelsea know well that Porto is very strong at home and in my opinion they will search for their chance in next match in England. I believe they will be very satisfied with draw today , even better if they score a goal. With such result they will have much better chances in second game. I think they will have pretty same tactics like Porto. They will not push too hard , waiting for opponent mistake. So , it could mean one very close match without much goals and maybe under 2.5 is best bet for this match. However , odds are not great for that option. Chelsea will also be in full strength as Ballack is back after injury .

So, my opinion this match could easily ends low scoring draw. So, go for under 2.5 (1.50 @ bet365) or Porto AH 0.5 (1.80 @ bet365)

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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Excelsior - Groningen

February 9th 2007 13:17

Excelsior have 9 matches long row of losing. So, they didn’t take any point for very long time. Situation is very serious as they are at 16th place which means they will play Dutch play-out matches if they stay at the same place. But , it’s not safe place for them as they have 3 points more than RKC at the last place which leads directly to Jupiler League next season. Excelsior play very strong football and it’s mystery for me why they didn’t make any point lately. They have few young but very good players in team and some of them are already seen in stronger Eredivisie teams. Biggest disadvantage is certainly they inexperience , but it’s only question of time when they will start to perform better as I think they should stay in a league. Excelsior don’t have injury or suspension worries and team will be with full strength today.

Groningen is very good team in Eredivisie , but mainly at home venue while away they have totally different performances. They’ve started season with their usual performance but then they’ve lost 4 consecutive matches at home. However, last week they took one point at home against Heerenveen 1:1. In front of this match Groningen is in problems as their best two strikers are not available , Erik Nevland is injured while Ukrainian Evgeny Levchenko is suspended. Also , another good striker Luis Suarez is doubtful but there are some chances to play.

I think it’s time for Excelsior to finally end this really bad results row. They are much better team than their current rankings and they must be very motivated after 9 unsuccessful rounds. Lucky number 10 I said …Excelsior AH 0.5 (1.94 @ 10bet , Pinnacle) is what I play today.

1.94 @ 10bet

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Posted By: Daressi - Category: 3. Soccer picks

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